Aerosol particles and clouds are the least explored but most uncertain atmospheric agents affecting the solar radiation balance of the Earth. However, at present many properties of aerosol and clouds and aspects of their behaviour remain poorly understood and cannot be described correctly by computer models. This provides a major current limitation of climate models to deliver accurate global and regional climate predictions.
IPCC has pointed out that there are substantial uncertainties on global impacts of climate change when applied at the regional or local level. For example, General Circulation Models (GCMs) do not accurately represent current climate at a regional scale. In many cases, seasonal patterns of precipitation are misrepresented. Limited scientific research has been carried out in a local level to determine possible impact of climate change on the society and economy. Therefore, extensive research on climate change is essential to understand temporal and spatial impacts of climate change.
Considering these facts, the PhD research will undertake high resolution 3D modelling of the Nepal region coupling meteorology with cloud, rain and pollution field to predict annual variation in pollution deposition. This will be achieved using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) coupled with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) designed to simulate trace gases and aerosol from cloud scale to regional scales. The model will be used to replicate current seasonal variations in observed climate variables before being used to predict future trends in pollutant deposition as a consequence of industrialisation and climate warming in that region.